Midterm elections are the midpoint of an American President’s four-year term and are often viewed as a referendum on the Administration’s performance.
What Are Americans Voting On?
Resulting from the 2016 Presidential election, Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers of Congress.
Current House of Representatives: 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats (all 435 seats will be voted on).
Current Senators: 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats (only 35 seats will be voted on).
Current Governors: 33 Republicans, 16 Democrats, and 1 Independent (only 36 states and 3 territories will be voted on).
States Voting for Senator
Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
States Voting for Governor
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kanas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virgin Islands, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
Election Goals by Party
Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania were key swing states in the presidential elections, therefore governors in these states will be crucial to mobilising support and donations for the 2020 presidential election.
The Republicans currently control Congress and maintaining this control will ensure support for President Trump’s legislative agenda. The Republicans also control the Senate and are likely to retain control since many states up for election which are currently held by Democrats were states President Trump won in the 2016 election.
To reclaim a majority in Congress, the Democrats need to retain their existing seats and gain a minimum of 23 seats in the House, as well as a minimum of 2 seats in the Senate. If the Democrats were to regain control of the House, they oppose several of President Trump’s policies and with a large enough majority, will block the Republican’s legislative agenda.
Should the Republicans lose control of Congress, Americans will face two years of legislative gridlock; years of political ineffectiveness and infighting being a major factor that drew voter support to Donald Trump in his campaigns for leadership of the Republican Party and in the Presidential election. The same fate fell on former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who were paralyzed after their first two years’ in office.
The White House Track Record
Since his election in 2016, President Trump has accomplished a great deal, including economic growth, a healthy job market with declining unemployment and wages and salaries on the rise – particularly for blue-collars, competitive tax reform, strong consumer confidence, overhauled Obamacare and lowering pharmaceutical drug prices, bipartisan support for tackling the opioid crisis, two successful nominations to the Supreme Court, a reduction in illegal immigration, renegotiating international trade deals, and talking North Korea off the nuclear cliff, to name a few.
What Do Polls Suggest?
Who does the polling result benefit? Polling firms are not unbiased and have been increasingly proven wrong in their predictions across many jurisdictions in many countries and regions for several years now. Polling firms have become a tool in the toolbox of partisan interests and mainstream news media to influence and control public opinion with biased population samples, wording of questions, and presentation of data
It may benefit Republicans who want to ensure their base gets out to vote by releasing polling results that show Republicans are trailing. It may benefit Democrats to release a poll with the same result to encourage their voters to come out if they believe there’s a chance they can win. Like every other aspect of a political campaign, polls are not always what they seem.